2012 04 30 The Physics Of Carls Restart Penalty

Let us now consider your options in last position when your opponent does not give you a free call but comes out betting. When he bets, you can either fold, call, or raise. Deciding whether to fold or call is relatively straightforward. The question is: Are your chances of winning the pot better than the odds you are getting from the pot, either because your hand is better than your opponent’s or because your opponent is bluffing? If you think your chances are better, you call. If not, you fold.

 

If you are thinking of raising after your opponent bets, you must ask the same question you would have asked before betting had your opponent checked: What are the chances of winning that extra bet when you are called? You should not raise unless you figure you are at least a 55 percent favorite, since you also face the possibility of a reraise. In fact, one way of looking at raising an opponent on the end without the nuts is that you are laying almost 2-to-l odds on that last bet, especially if your opponent is capable of bluffing on a reraise.

 

When you raise and your opponent raises back, you usually lose two bets, but if he calls, you only gain one bet. Of course, this consideration does not apply against a player who will never bluff on a reraise. If such a player raises you back, you can just throw your hand away, knowing you are beat. Before raising on the end, you must also consider the overall ability of your opponent. Once he puts in an initial bet, an average player will call your raise almost every time. Therefore, you certainly should not try a bluff raise.