February 21st, 2012 
T.C. Qualifying is already in the books for the Daytona 500, but because of the 500′s unique format, the lineup hasn’t yet been set. Only the drivers that qualified on the front row (Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle for this year) know where they will start. Where teams finish in Thursday’s Gatorade Duel races will determine where they start in the 500. But while you might think that could lead to a good show, don’t expect any drama from those already locked in the race. Only those drivers looking to race their way into the Daytona 500 will be looking to take chances and possibly put on a good show.
Last Saturday night’s Bud Shootout was a crazy start to the 2012 season. Several big crashes took out key players, and we had the closest finish ever in that race. Only 12 of the 25 cars that started the race were running at the finish, and only 10 of those were even on the lead lap. But while the return to pack racing appeared to cause crazy racing, don’t expect that trend to continue on Thursday.
What the Duel races provide is a classic risk vs. reward situation. And in this case, the risk greatly outweighs the reward. The benefits of contending for the Duel win and a starting position for the 500 closer to the front aren’t enough of an incentive to push these drivers to race hard and take chances. It’s just too important for the teams to keep their primary cars intact for the start of the 500 on Sunday.
Because of a dizzying array of factors, what we now see is that the usual benefits of qualifying well are diminished at restrictor plate tracks. The better track position is nice, but it can be gained or lost in a matter of moments. And because track position isn’t as big of a deal, the importance placed on pit stops, and thus pit stall selection is diminished. Tires hardly wear at Daytona, so you’ll see a lot of no-tire and two-tire stops in the 500, with the emphasis being on getting the cars full of gas. When it doesn’t matter what stall you have, that added benefit of qualifying well becomes a moot point.
Teams spent all winter tweaking and massaging their cars for the 500, and they will be much less apt to put those cars in a position to be wrecked when the rewards aren’t great. Expect many of the top name drivers to take it easy in the Duel races, and also avoid the remaining practice sessions if possible.
The drivers to focus in on during the Duel races for drama are Kenny Wallace, Dave Blaney, Michael Waltrip, Joe Nemecheck, Michael McDowell, Mike Wallace, Robert Richardson, Robby Gordon, and JJ Yeley. They are all currently on the outside looking in and need a good finish in their respective Duel for a shot at the 500.
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Actually while I believe that Cup drivers wouldn’t drive like they have nothing to lose (example the Budweiser Shootout), they will drive hard to win the Duel races and/or get the best starting position possible. Not to mention, we have go or go home drivers just trying to qualifying for the Daytona 500.
But these Duel races aren’t going to boring neither. I believe it will pack racing with hopefully drivers staying off each others rear bumpers at least in the corners. Of course if NASCAR would reinstate the “no bump drafting or bumping in the corners” rule, it would make this better, but they have plans to do so.
However I am still looking forward to both races.
The T35 rules really took a lot away from the duels. If we must have the T35 rule (and I can understand why we have it), then let them gather points for the first 5 races, THEN pick the T35. No carryover from last year! What, you think JJ or Tony won’t be in the T35 after 5 races??
Okay….help me with the math. 35 guaranteed starters. 3(?) qualified in on speed Sunday. One past champion provisional. That means 2 per duel can qualify in. They don’t mean a lot, do they.
The top 35 has been around for a while now and the Duels have been excellent races. Been there for the last 12 and will be this year.
All NASCAR has to do to sweeten the pot is offer 1 point for the driver that leads the most laps and 1 pt for the each winner. Eventhough he is on the Pole, don’t think Cousin Carl wouldn’t fight like hell for those bonus points after losing the tie breaker in 2011. Imagine a driver, or two drivers, or three or four heading in Sunday’s 500 w/ a point advantage?…before the points racing actually begins.
Gotta go charge my scanner now….
it would be interesting to see if any drive would drop out of the duels with some type of mystery mechanical issue just so as to not wreck the areo on their cars.
Any takers on this conspiracy?
The topics seem a lot more negative this season.
One thing about pushing the car ahead of you. Some, including me, assumed the problem was pushing in the corners. Tony Stewart said he didn’t have a problem with pushing in the corners as the car was “loaded” while in the corner. The problem was pushing down the straights where the back end was light. Kyle Busch said the same thing after the Bud Shootout. The incident where Gordon was pushing and wrecked, Kyle said that down the straight he was out of control with Gordon pushing him. Left, right, left, right.
I think we’ll end up seeing another wreckfest in both the Duels and Daytona 500 unless NASCAR addresses this by possibly adding an inch back to the rear spoiler.
Also, I wonder why Edwards or Biffle would bother to run the Duels since they will be starting the 500 on the front row… unless they wreck in the Duels.
Eric, I’m confused about your comment. What has been negative?
The tone this season, after 2 months off seems different… maybe its just me.. sorry if im wrong
Doesn’t matter which race it is, everyone wants to win “any” race at Daytona!
Dennis: The Daytona 500 rules state that to keep their Pole and Outside pole positions, they HAVE to run the 150s. They do not have to actually finish them though.
Can anyone tell me why NASCAR has taken away the driver’s ability to communicate with each other? I could have sworn I heard that they are not allowed to have those radios this year that allow them to change channels and talk to various other drivers. What was their reasoning? When the guy behind can’t see, it seems kinda useful to be able to talk to someone who can.
Correct me if I am wrong, BUT, some other venues of racing are started solely by qualifying speed. And I thing NASCAR was at one time too! Course, a shootout and 2 other races over 8-10 days of time spent by a lot of folks means BIG$$$$$ for King France and the surrounding community!
Fun Duels and Great weather down here…..