February 6th, 2011 
T.C. I didn’t have one idea that I wanted to focus on with my last blog post before the 2011 season gets under way this week, so instead I’ve got a bunch of mini topics to touch on. Feel free to comment on any or all of them.
New Points System
I’ve been asked by a few people what my opinion is of the new points system NASCAR has instituted for this season, and I’ve got to say, I don’t really care. It seems on initial inspection that it isn’t a ton different then the old system, and I really don’t believe it will change the way teams race. Teams will still try like hell to win races, and when they can’t, they will do whatever is necessary to get the best possible finish they can. You will also still see teams try and get their race cars back on track after a wreck in order to ride around and get as many points as they can. The mindset won’t change. So I guess if the new system makes things easier for the fans, cool, but other than that, I don’t care.
Final Pit Procedure Thoughts
We’ve talked quite a bit around here about the new pit road procedures with the elimination of the catch can position, but I just wanted to offer a few final points. I encourage you to really pay attention to pit stops at Daytona, because you will definitely see some differing techniques among the teams. I also wouldn’t be surprised if it appears as though one or two teams use a system that works better than the others, and for the other teams to follow suit shortly. It will be kind of a “monkey see, monkey do” situation once the teams get a chance to scout each other. These changes will also have a significant impact on pit strategy and what adjustments will get made. It’s a whole new ball game for crew chiefs and engineers now, and I think there is a much larger emphasis now on the decisions they make during the races. You will see a lot more races decided based on pit strategies – at least in the short run.
Important Season For Many Drivers, Teams, and Sponsors
There are quite a few drivers and sponsors this season that have contracts that will be expiring after Homestead in November. Lee Spencer from FoxSports.com recently had a bit up about all the Cup drivers who are in the final year of their contracts in 2011 (see it here). This really could be a year that we look back on and say that this was the year that made or broke driver X or team Y. There will be a lot of pressure on those drivers and teams to put in solid performances every week in order to help secure their futures. With the economy continuing to a be a big factor with sponsorships, these teams don’t want to give these companies any reason to either switch to another race team, or pull out completely. It will certainly be an interesting story line to watch.
Nationwide Series Changes
I’m really curious to see how the 2011 season unfolds for the Nationwide Series after the championship eligibility changes were made. Will it really help bring the series back to being a developmental series, or will the Cup drivers continue to dominate regardless? We haven’t had a solid Cup rookie class in a couple of years, and the deterioration of the Nationwide Series has certainly played a part in that. In order to keep the talent coffers full of new young drivers, it’s vital that the NNS get back to being a place where these kids can learn how to race.
Championship Predictions
We don’t normally do a ton of predictions around here, because they are mostly useless, and it’s pretty much impossible to get them right. But with that said, I’m going to give you my picks on who I think will win each of the top three championships. In the Truck Series, I believe the addition of Jeff Hensley to KHI will pay off big and Ron H0rnaday will return to dominance. Hornaday ran really well last season, but just had a lot of bad luck. Expect that to change for 2011. For the Nationwide Series, I think the pick has to be Elliott Sadler. The Joe Gibbs Toyotas are pretty much unstoppable, but since neither Joey Logano nor Kyle Busch can win the championship, the balance shifts towards KHI. Sadler has the talent and will have the equipment to be a contender every week, and I don’t see any of the younger drivers putting it together for 34 races. And finally, the 2011 Cup Series champion will be Denny Hamlin. The bitter taste of being the runner up to Jimmie Johnson in 2010 will be serious motivation for this team to take the next step, and with Hamlin being 100% healthy this season, he will put it together and unseat the 48 bunch.
The off season has ended, and teams will head to Daytona this week. The next time you hear from me, we’ll have our first race winner (even if it is an exhibition race), and the front row will be set for the Daytona 500. Welcome to 2011!
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Football is over, bring on the Bud Shootout. I was happy to see Fox attempting to run clever commercials for the Daytona 500.
RE: pit procedure, regarding the monkey-see-monkey do scenario. I assume teams film their own pit stops regularly. TC, do teams film the opposition regularly? Review only the oppositions stops caught on broadcast TV? Not at all? Or simply monitor in person? Seems like a lot of opposing teams to keep track of. No pun intended!
Neon: Filming the other teams doesn’t really happen, but the pit crew coaches will definitely walk around during the race and scout the other teams, and watching replays of the race does happen as well.
RE: FOX ads
Would the NFL tolerate every ad being highlights of fumbles with an occasional personal foul tossed in?
Would MLB tolerate every ad being highlights of errors with an occasional player ejection thrown in?
Yet NASCAR tolerates and even seems to promote every ad highlighting crashing with an occaisional driver spat tossed in…
RE 2011 Cup champ
I agree with the Hamlin pick for the reason stated. However, I’ll also take Kyle as my backup pick…if that guy gets some more maturity and pragmatism this year, he’ll be unstoppable.
TC,
I think you should revisit your opinion on the new points system. Clint Bowyer has already stated to media that if his car is loose he isn’t going to attempt to drive under another guy to try and get 5th position and risk wrecking andd ending up 35th. As much as people say that they are only out there to win, once it is realized a win isn’t going to happen, its about the sponser and making the chase for sponser obligations and having a shot at the championship.
We already see drivers hang back and ride for the first 400 – 450 miles and only compete over the last 50 or 100 laps, and in this case you are right. Nothing is going to change, because there is no encouragement to race and provide entertainment for the first 90% of the race.
In some ways, nothing changes, but in others, the excitement will most definately not be the same.
Kevin: No revisitation necessary. Bowyer’s comments that you quoted support what I said here:
I also think that it’s easy to sit and say you will and won’t do certain things in an interview before the season even starts, but will see what happens when Bowyer or any other driver for that matter, is racing at Bristol with 15 laps to go…
LOL, slow day so I’m back on my soapbox…
Continuing on with my earlier rant about the FOX ads highlighting crashes…when will the guys at NASCAR finally figure out that “the product” for ALL pro sports is “people doing stuff you could never do yourself”.
That is what people are paying money for and spending their time to see, people doing stuff they themselves could never do.
Look no further than the PGA and it’s following for Exhibit A. I’d guess probably 95% of fans are avid golf players but they still attend and tune in, because they know they will see “people doing stuff they themselves could never do”.
Sorry, but the thought “WOW, I could NEVER do THAT, I need to buy tickets!” does not even enter my mind when I see a spot with a bunch of cars crashing all over the place. Why not? Because I guarantee you I could crash just like that, and I’m sure everybody else knows they could crash just like that too. So what exactly is it in those spots that is supposed to compel anybody to watch?
Anyway, I’m sure looking forward to the shootout! I always enjoy the “stand alone” races. Some people see them as meaningless, but for me there is something pure about “a race, a field, a winner, the end”.
MS: I with ya. Those same “crashes” in other sports are considered bloopers….well except the NHL of yesteryear!
TC, I agree on Sadler for the NW crown. I know it seems lame to pick this guy after winning the last two in 2010, but I gotta think Edwards will be at the top come November. Unless, of course, he lets BK get into his head!
For you F1 following, I gotta hope Kubica makes a strong recovery from his severe injuries in Rally this past w/e.
MS: Agree w/ what you say 100%. However, the exciting points of NASCAR unfold over several laps. Showing a 2 second video clip of Car A passing Car B is not exciting for a commercial. Car A battling car B for 8 laps and going door to door, and finally passing, that’s exciting, but doesn’t fit in the 30 second meter. Heck, even if the pit crew rips off a 12 second pit stop it is still boring compared to short highlight clips.
I thought FoxSports commercials for Daytona were demeaning to the sport and gave the detractors more ammunition to say that NASCAR is the wheeled equivalent of pro wrestling.
I’m disappointed that the changes to the Shootout mean that start and park drivers infect the special events as well. Derrick Cope and Geoff Bodine have no place here. Much as I love him, Kenny Schrader’s time has passed too.
My pick for the championship is JJ. NASCAR will do everything it can to make sure he gets a 6th consecutive championship. They don’t care about this year; it’s the setup to next year’s promo blitz of an unprecedented seven in a row. Expect some biased application of penalties as they pertain to Jimmie’s car.
Fireball, I hear what you’re saying about action developing for a few laps, but without tipping my hand I’ll say that I do some media stuff and I guarantee I can do a 15-20 second string of 1-4 second clips from last year that would be amazing without a single crash in sight. And the sad part is that I believe anyone in media that has an ‘on track’ background would find it just as easy.
And therein lies the problem in my mind for both the ads and the coverage: no ‘on track’ backrounds in the ranks of the producers. A good producer that doesn’t know anything to speak of about racing will make a slick well produced clip or segment of pretty pictures and loud sounds that they guess are what somebody wants to see, but since the producer is just guessing and really doesn’t have a clue, it usually (if not always) fails to capture the true essence of racing. And if you get right down to it, it’s really unfair to expect somebody who never spent one second on the track at some level to ‘get it’ and be able to capture ‘it’ in the production, since they have no clue what ‘it’ even is.
MS and Fireball, I blame the “Fast & Furious” mentality. Too much crash, burn, flip and computer generated animation to capture attention. We need another “real life” Craven vs Bush vs Darlington highlight real to usher in fans. I could watch that epic battle over and over and over….
Every time I try to come up with my list for this year’s Chase, I cannot seem to come up with the same 12 names. Their are so many good drivers and teams, so many changes that have occured, and so many guys in their 3-5th year when things usually click and produce wins. I am more excited for this year than any in recent memory and I sincerely hope the changes prove to be positive. I miss the days when cars passed a lot and I miss not having the lucky dog, but stock car racing is still the best as far as I am concerned and I cannot wait to see what happens each week.
Watching history unfold in sports is fun and to see JJ win another championship, while I am not necessarily a fan, it was pretty cool to see. Each one is different. So to see his team do it again would be just incredible, once again, but to see someone else win, well I guess I don’t even know what that will look like, none of us do since no one has stopped JJ once he starting winning championships, but I can think of one word that might some it up, jubilation.
I hope you all have a great time watching this season and the history unfold live!