Since its inception in 2004 the Chase has been one of the more contentious issues among fans. I know many of you don’t like it. So I think it’s interesting every year to look at the standings as if we were still under the old points system.
This is something I did last year (here and here) and honestly we weren’t too surprised by the results. Jimmie ended the season just behind Carl Edwards (16 points behind). I know what you’re saying, Jimmie’s a false champion, but remember the #48 team sandbagged at Homestead (I would have stayed out of the fight too). Anyway, thankfully this season I don’t have to figure out the points (I know I’m lazy), because NASCAR has already done it for me. Here they are…
1. #48 Jimmie Johnson, 4996
2. #14 Tony Stewart, 4983, -13
3. #24 Jeff Gordon, 4940, -56
4. #5 Mark Martin, 4635, -361
5. #11 Denny Hamlin, 4611, -385
6. #2 Kurt Busch, 4593, -403
7. #42 Juan Pablo Montoya, 4454, -542
8. #16 Greg Biffle, 4420, -576
9. #39 Ryan Newman, 4353, -643
10. #18 Kyle Busch, 4310, -686
11. #9 Kasey Kahne, 4276, -720
12. #17 Matt Kenseth, 4265, -731
13. #99 Carl Edwards, 4252, -744
14. #33 Clint Bowyer, 4224, -772
15. #00 David Reutimann, 4103, -893
16. #83 Brian Vickers, 4024, -972
I can’t personally say I’m surprised Jimmie is leading, however small that lead is. I suppose what surprises me the most is how close the champion race would have been between Johnson, Stewart and Gordon. This would have made for quite a showdown at Homestead. And so much for Mark Martin, he’s not even a factor without the Chase.
Obviously Stewart (currently 5th) and Gordon (currently 3rd) are hurt by the Chase. Interestingly though, so is Denny Hamlin (he’s currently 8th) and Kyle Busch, who missed the cut-off for the Chase and is sitting in 13th.
Being helped most by the Chase are Brian Vickers (currently 12th), Kurt Busch (currently in 4th) and Mark Martin (currently 2nd).
Outside of those guys just about everyone else is within a position or two of where they stand with the Chase. After looking at the points over the last several years, that really isn’t too surprising.
Going into Homestead, Jimmie Johnson is looking like a pretty good bet. It’s possible if they have another Texas-sized problem he could lose the Championship (that’s assuming Mark can put together a solid finish), but let’s face it the #48 is consistently consistent (and good).
My point with this, as it was last year, is to show that even though the Chase has changed the system, the end result really isn’t that much different. The Chase has brought some interest and intrigue to the late season, but at the end of the day the cream will rise to the top. Call Jimmie Johnson a false champion if you like, but you and I both know that’s not true.
Oh and I’ll update you on the final results for Monday’s post.
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on Nov 19th, 2009 at 6:12 am
“And so much for Mark Martin, he’s not even a factor without the Chase” WHAT???
uh???, is it required to bag on Mark Martin like that?
This expert racer would be 4th, I would call that a FACTOR, what is wrong with you?
Are you aware how many times he has been this close?? OVER AND OVER,,,I THOUGHT YOU NASCAR good ole boys respected consistancy and top 5s…etc tec blah blah.
I would call his LONG TERM record the most consistant in NASCAR. Even if has never won the top spot, he has been there many many times. I would have guessed you might have some class, and give him the respect which he is deserves. wtf?
Mark Martin is certainly 10 times the racer that Whiney Stewart is. Let see where you beloved Tony Whiney is in 5-10 years?
Compared to you beloved TS? LOL, Mark is ten times the racer, on and off the track,
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 6:23 am
Will JJ play it safe this week, or will they go for the win?
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 8:04 am
Garry: Relax big guy, nobody is “bagging” on Mark Martin here. Journo simply stated that without the Chase Martin isn’t a factor in winning the championship this year. And if you would have actually looked at the standings, you would have seen that Martin would be fourth almost 400 points out. Mathematically, heading into Homestead he would be eliminated from Cup contention; hence “not a factor.” This was not a statement about Martin’s talent, or his class, or his competitiveness. Try and stay with us here…
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 8:23 am
Great post. I think the point is that NASCAR should have left it alone. This shows that it IS possible to have a 36 race champion (not a 10 race champion), AND have an exciting finish.
I’m slayed by the fact that “fixing” the points with 10 to go has given us a worse showdown than not.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 8:43 am
I hate the “what if” game because no one would have raced the same under different circumstances. For instance, this year, would Jimmie and Chad have taken the fuel mileage gamble if they hadn’t already known Jimmie was in the Chase? Probably not. Last year, would he have gone for broke against Carl Edwards at Homestead? Probably so. And, if as so many wants, wins were given more points than now, that would usually just give Jimmie a bigger points lead.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 9:15 am
T.C. & Journo-I think what got Garry riled is the opening on MM stating “And so much for Mark Martin….”. That kinda got in my crawl too. Over all you are right, the numbers don’t lie.
One thing to remember in all of this Chase vs non Chase points comparison is that you really cannot compare points between the two. The advent of the Chase alters strategies to suit. #48 happens to be the best at figuring out the best time to peak. Kudos to them.
It’s like saying in baseball, when a player gets thrown out on an attempted steal. The next hitter rips a homerun and all are saying “see if he hadn’t tried to steal, we would have a 2-run homer instead of a solo HR”. Students of the game realize that it doesn’t work that way and one action leads to, or alters, the next.
Personally I don’t care for the Chase. I liken it to a competition yellow 2/3 of the way through the season. I call it “manufactured racing”.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 9:31 am
False is really not the right word. He earned the point lead under the current Chase format…but his wins definatley need an asterick next to them. Do you really think Jeff Gordon is a fan of the Chase???
Jimmie is good and very consistant..of course he’s up there.
The Chase looks good on paper, but in practice it fails. It needs to be revamped. The points system makes no sense..re-do it. Shake up the tracks..each year have different tracks for the Chase races. Maybe a road course?
Over all, I’m not a fan of it. It’s just MORE manipulation of the sport. Just race…at the end of the season, it is what it is.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 10:02 am
Garry- Simmer down. Without the Chase he isn’t a factor in the Championship race (assuming things shook out the same way). Being 361 points out going into the final race makes you a non-factor. That’s a fact. That wasn’t a shot at Mark. And who ever said we loved Tony Stewart? Are you making stuff up now to strengthen your position? Please don’t get on here and start blasting us over absolutely nothing. Read the post, consider the context and then put some thought into what you’re saying.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 11:01 am
1992: no chase, three drivers go to the final race with a shot at the title.
2003: no chase, Kenseth sews up the title a week before the final race.
2004: first year of the chase and it goes down to the late stages at Homestead.
2008: Johnson sews it up at Phoenix.
Whatever system you have, some years it’ll be close, other years it won’t. I don’t like the chase, but my opposition is mellowing. I just want to see good races.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 11:27 am
Comparing Chase Numbers to Old Point System Numbers is like comparing apples to oranges. I have heard several drivers that knew they would make the Chase (only a couple of races away), but not get a win started experimenting on different setups. Since at that point a 5th place would mean the same as a 25th place (points wise) they didn’t try for points. If every point still mattered they would not have even thought about doing something like that.
As for JJ at homestead last year, I heard on the scanner, Chad called JJ in near the end of the race for fuel. He said something like, You have enough fuel to get you to the end, but I want to give you plenty of fuel to do a great burn out. Coming in for fuel near the end of the race would have dropped him several spots to say the least. I seem to remember there were a bunch of cars hitting the pits for a splash of fuel.
The point being that your whole strategy would be different in the races right before the Chase starts and near the end of the season. Like in football, the coach is going to call a different play on 4th and inches if they are up by 30, or down by 30, or tied at zero.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 11:45 am
Far as I can see the chase has done what NASCAR wanted it to do, except for the wrong people. The fans simply put up with it and continue watching the races. However the TV people have totally gone GAGA over the whole thing, and as a result, that’s all we hear from them. No one else means a rat’s behind to them. I bet those non-chase sponsors really like that alot. No wonder they’re getting out of the sport.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Not long ago you had an entire thread called “WHY TS WILL WIN THE CUP THIS YEAR”…thus “your beloved”.
now … you write a post saying “so much for Mark Martin,
Sow a lot of bias on your part..
I give Mark Martin the respect he deseves. Mark Martin never whines, like TS, and he never makes excuses, like TS.
Mark Martin could win his cup this weekend and you belittle that fact with this thread, but it is your blog, do as you wish.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Garry,
I appreciate the support for MM, as I have been a MM since he first came to Cup, however, unless the sky caves in, this championship season is over. Mark will be the first to admit, he did his best but that wasn’t good enough.
I, too, took the comments as a dig (“And so much for Mark Martin, he’s not even a factor without the Chase.”) towards MM but then I’m learning in my writing class that when someone writes their essay, it’s their thoughts and opinions. I just choose to believe differently.
TC & Journo – thanks for your columns and twitters, tweets…While I may not agree with some of what you write, it isn’t malicious and you get us talking about the issues.
Happy Thanksgiving and here’s to hoping there may be a miracle in Homestead and my favorite driver takes home the trophy..and it’s NOT JJ.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Garry- Really? TC wrote a tongue-in-cheek post about Tony winning the championship because he was on the cover of a video game (and had won in the years he appeared on said video game cover). It was supposed to be funny. Apparently you didn’t get it. Call me crazy though, I’m getting the impression you just want to have an argument. Do you realize you’re getting angry over a hypothetical points situation?
At no point in my post did I suggest Mark couldn’t win this weekend. The fact is though, under the old points system, if things had turned out the same, Mark would be 361 out. He would be statistically eliminated from winning the championship. That makes him a non-factor. Do you understand that?
I have absolutely no allegiances in this sport. I have no personal stake in who wins and frankly will be happy for whoever pulls it out. I have nothing but nice things to say about Mark and Jimmie and just about everyone else. You though are so blinded by your allegiance you can’t stand to think about a situation where your guy doesn’t win. And that’s fine. I respect that. But don’t waste your time and mine by coming on here and lobbing charges at me and at TC that couldn’t be farther from the truth. It’s insulting.
It’s remarkable. I try to write an innocuous, fun post that could open discussion about the Chase and the points system and we have to spend the day arguing about something I never said and honestly don’t feel. This kind of stuff makes me cringe. Some though are good at misconstruing and taking what you say out of context to further their own agenda; and unfortunately I can’t stop that.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
somewhat off point, but I noticed that the storyline that Johnson needs to finish 25th is based on Martin earning maximum points. If Martin doesn’t win, Johnson could do much worse. And if Johnson can finish ahead of the start and parks, Martin would have to run well into the top-10 and take the bonus points for leading laps.
Given this, and given how Knaus has always said that while they want to win races, they mostly want to win the championship, the safest approach for Johnson would be to drop off the pace and run by himself – away from the Hornishes and the Earnhardts – until the start and parks drop out at which time he could rejoin the fray and pass the mere handful of cars he would have to in order to ensure a championship.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Posts like this are ridiculous. The rules of the chase have been set and this is the rules we race by. Get over it. I have NEVER seen an article from other sports where they try and figure out who would have won the Super Bowl, World Series, Stanley Cup based on regular season standings. Why? Becuase they have accepted that the rules are the rules. Why can’t NASCAR fans accept the Chase? Because they’re favourite driver won by the “old rules”? Guess what, the old rules don’t apply any more. Accept it. These comparisons have come up year after year. It does NOT matter. The champion has been Jimmie Johnson for three years in the row (read the history books). The champion this year will be a Hendrick driver (likely 48 unless some bad happens). Do I like that? Absolutely not. I’m not a #48 fan. This is the rules, he has been the champ and we’ll know on Sunday who will be the champion for 2009.
Stop with the who would be leading under the “old rules”. It’s done. Move on with your life.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Chubdubblub- Thank you. And Happy Thanksgiving to you too!
Steve- Yeah I’m betting on a very conservative #48 team on Sunday.
CdnNASCARNut- I’m sorry you thought the post was ridiculous, but I think we’re on the same page. As I’m sure you read, I wrote:
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
After reading Doug in CA’s post, it got me thinking, so I did a little checking. I wanted to compare how close the races were in final points before and during the Chase format. I seem to remember years where someone was mathematically the winner with several races still to go, and years where it was decided in the last race.
If you count JJ’s current 108 point lead for 2009, the average difference between first and second place during Chase years (2004 – 09) is 58.8 (353 / 6 = 58.8). If JJ would win, lead the most laps, and MM ended up 43rd with no laps lead (161 points diff). The average difference between first and second in points would bump up to 85.7 (514 / 6 = 85.7).
The 6 years before the Chase (1998 – 2003) the average difference between first and second place is 217.3 (1307 / 6 = 217.8). Since 1998 – 2001 had some high numbers (364, 201, 265, 201) I went back for 10 years to 1994 then I came up with an average of 183.6 (1836 / 10 = 186.3).
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Ric- Nice work. I’ve never seen that before. It’s for the reason that you point out that NASCAR is trying to make the Chase work. It really does tighten up the points race up and add a little more interest late in the season.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
Doug in CA: “Whatever system you have, some years it’ll be close, other years it won’t.” You’re spot on
Neon: I agree, the chase is manufactured racing.
I don’t know if I like the chase or not. I guess what I don’t like most about it is the possibility that the bubble guys could go on a tear the last 10 races & the best they can finish in the standings is 13th. But it’s all speculative.
What I do like about it is there is a reward for wins.
So I’m with Doug in CA that it’s just the nature of the sport that some years points will be tight & some years won’t.
I think someone has a man crush on Mark Martin. It’s OK bro. I understand. I’ve been accused of it myself.
on Nov 19th, 2009 at 6:28 pm
Mark Martin is a great driver. Jimmie Johnson is a great driver. IMHO Mark Martin, however, once again cemented his maximum 2nd place in the Championship way back at Indy when JJ jumped him on the restart and MM didn’t force the issue. I know you could say a single place in that race does not make up the 100+ pts deficit, but that its the principle of who wants it the most.
Good luck to both this w/e!!!
on Nov 20th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Amazing qualifying today for this weeks race, maybe the best this year.
So many things going on…..
Jimmy Johnson and Mark Martin fighting for pole position to see who wins the chase.
Several new drivers fighting for a job next year.
At least one old timer trying to stay young.
All of the drivers trying to make the race, with a couple of them going home sad.
How about the drivers who might make or break thier career with these lat 2 two qualifying laps of the year …… YIKES!!! … iT HAS TO BE FAST…..BUT… crash and maybe never be back,,,ever….BUT ….. Hit a goood lap and maybe get a job for 2010. WOW!!!
And the finale??….the young driver, with the best name in racing (SPEED), has a great qualifying lap …. and winds up next to JJ, on the front row…… WOW …. AMAZING…
on Nov 23rd, 2009 at 11:29 am
It is sad what Mike and Brian has done to NASCAR. Welcome to the WWE folks. Even though fans are leaving at an alarming rate. They still want to sodomize the sport that Bill France Sr and Jr spend decades building up. What if the NFL decided after 11 games to take the top 12 teams and which ever won the most games in the last five game is declared the champion. Or if MLB took the top 12 teams after 108 games and who ever won the most in the remaining games is the champion? If you’re going to have a playoff system (which racing doesn’t need) then you should create a separate points system for the top 12 teams.
on Nov 25th, 2009 at 8:40 am
If their wasn’t the chase what was the top 3 in every year? 04, 05, 06, 07. ?
on Nov 25th, 2009 at 8:40 am
I think Jeff Gordon 07 I don’t have a clue about 06 05 04
on Nov 25th, 2009 at 8:43 am
CdnNASCARNut – the super bowl, world series & stanley cup etc always had a playoff. They didn’t have 50 years of no playoffs then switch.
on Nov 25th, 2009 at 8:45 am
Think 2004 was Gordon or Johnson would’ve won by old system.