September 24th, 2009 
T.C. With the Chase for the Sprint Cup in full swing headed to Dover, teams must bring their “A” game to the track every weekend to have a chance at the championship. The smallest mistake by a mechanic, or a slight misstep by a pit crew could cost their team everything. I was curious though just how good a team had to be over the final ten races to secure the championship, so I did a little research to find out (Racing-Reference.info is great).
A big story this week was Kasey Kahne’s blown engine at Loudon. Some suspected sabotage, but a broken crankshaft proved to be the culprit. Many have said this mechanical failure probably ended Kahne’s chances at the championship. But before you write him off, remember that Jimmie Johnson started off the 2006 Chase with a 39th at Loudon. But Johnson was able to win the Cup with a final six race stretch that included a win, four second place finishes, and a ninth at Homestead. Kahne and Co. are certainly capable of such a run, but with the inconsistency they’ve shown this year, fans have plenty of reason to worry.
The only other driver to have a finish outside the top 25 in the Chase and still win the championship was Kurt Busch in 2004. He finished 42nd at Atlanta, but powered to the Cup with eight top six finishes (including a win). In 2005, eventual winner Tony Stewart’s worst finish was 25th, while Johnson’s worst finishes in ’07 and ’08 were a 14th and a 15th respectively.
Since the Chase was introduced, the highest average finish for the champion came in that 2006 season with Johnson. He averaged a 10.8 over the final ten races. But Johnson needed an average finish of fifth in 2007, and an average of 5.7 in 2008 to win those titles.
Just by looking briefly over the statistics, it would appear that the competition for the Cup gets more difficult every year. While a team may be allowed one mulligan finish, odds are that one bad weekend could ruin their shot. Johnson’s worst finish last year was a 15th as I said above, and even with an average finish of 5.7, his margin over second place was a scant 69 points. Over ten races, that means earning 6.9 points more per race then the next guy, or finishing about two positions better on track.
How’s that for pressure?
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Well, there’s not too much to comment on here..facts are facts. But I did feel bad for Kasey after the race…the media immediatley started writing him off. I really do not want the 48 team to win the championship, so I hope someone can challenge the Chad/Jimmie combo or they start having some bad luck. I don’t think I could stand an entire off season listening to my spouse and his friends talking about conspiracy theories. Ha! I enjoyed reading the above numbers…but statistics are meant to be broken. Maybe we’ll see some suprises???
T.C.,
I think the Chase drivers should be scored on their own point table, with points assigned from 1st to 12th, plus bonus points. Although Kahne’s blown engine did not involve another car, it’s just too easy for a field-filler to run out of talent and take out a Chaser with a horrible finish.
The traditionalists say “that’s racin’,” but the Chase itself is untraditional and an attempt to keep the final weeks meaningful. A separate points table for the Chaser would keep a back-marker from eliminating a team.
West Coast Kenny
Alameda, California
West Coast Kenny:
I like that idea. The 12 chasers should be ranked 1-12 by where they ended up in the race. Kasey would be 12th last week.
If the chasers are separate- there shouldn’t be a difference if you ended up 25th or 35th. Who cares about the 10 non-chase cars in between those spots?
It would also make following the chase easier during the race. While I’m a fan of a few non-chasers, lets face it- we all pay more attention to the 12 chasers during these last 10 races.
Regarding the Chaser’s being scored with 1-12 points. Back when there were only 10 in the Chase I made up my own 1-10 points system. I didn’t use any bonus points, just the order they finished. The results were very similar to how they finished in the real Chase.
I agree that they need their own point system. Better yet, I like the talk of doing eliminations. Now that would add excitement. Isn’t that what a playoff is all about? I’m sure Kasey Kahne wouldn’t like this idea though.
I remember charting the “average finish in the chase” stat for its first few years and was astonished that in 2004, I think Kurt averaged 9.something, whereas last year Johnson was at 5.something. That is impressive. And that’s why the 48 team is three-time champ. Like them or not, that is one hell of a race team.
P.S. I hate the chase. In my jaundiced eye, it cannot be improved because it’s a bad idea. Period. I’m far more interested in the underlying scoring system. I don’t know what I favor, but it’s a great topic fo eternal debate.