August 26th, 2009 
Journo This past weekend it was all but confirmed that Brad Keselowski would make his way to Penske Racing next season most likely replacing the struggling David Stremme. This came after a season of speculation about Keselowski’s future with JR Motorsports and Hendrick Motorsports.
Hendrick of course spent much of the summer trying to figure out a way to keep Keselowski in house (or very close by). He obviously didn’t have room in the Hendrick stable, JR Motorsports didn’t want to move to Cup and Stewart Haas (who has sponsorship issues of their own) showed absolutely no interest in expanding to three teams for next season.
As time progressed it became apparent there weren’t a lot of options for Keselowski even though he became the hottest prospect of the Silly Season after Martin Truex was signed. Penske and maybe Ganassi were Keselowski’s best options. A couple of other scenarios were discussed, but they seemed a stretch.
Now flash forward to this week. After it became public knowledge that Keselowski was likely headed to Penske, Hendrick came out and said “he’ll always be close enough for me to bring him back,” which got me thinking.
Think about this, no one is going to turn down Rick Hendrick; especially not the young driver who in large part owes his success to the team owner. So what does Hendrick do? He lets Keselowski go. He lets him go with the knowledge that Keselowski is welcome back when, in the very near future, there is an opening with the team.
What does this allow Hendrick to do? He doesn’t have to put anything into Brad K.’s development as a Cup Series driver, and doesn’t have to go through the year or two of mediocre runs and struggles.
And then what if Keselowski doesn’t pan out (it’s possible)? Hendrick then has lost absolutely nothing on Keselowski. He hasn’t lost time and he hasn’t lost money. If Keselowski does pan out, Hendrick can say I knew that he was the next greatest thing a couple of years ago. Then when the #5 car comes open or perhaps another car, he can entice Keselowski to come back.
If all goes well for Hendrick, Roger Penske will spend the time and money developing his golden boy and he can get him back when he has space for him. If everything doesn’t go well, Hendrick comes out of the situation no worse for the wear.
While I certainly don’t think this situation was planned like this (honestly I believe Hendrick would have liked him to stay on in some capacity), Hendrick has to know the situation really isn’t that bad for him or his team. And time will tell just how good Keselowski really is.
Just a thought.
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I thought this all along! Hendrick has nothing to lose here. In 2-3 years, let’s say the #24 or #5 opens up like they should. If Brad has run well with an average cup team in Penske, then he should still have every reason to believe he’ll excell in Hendrick cars. If he sucks, so be it. He lost nothing!
Penske is clearly the loser here, because Brad will NOT stay with them unless his career goes down the gutter in Cup. In which case, in 2-3 years, his options could be limited. I hope he succeeds and has a great career because he’s very very likable, but you never know.
I think you hit the nail on the head in terms of the relative risks and benefits for Hendrick. A year ago, I’m sure Hendrick envisioned Keselowski in the 5 car next year, but I doubt that any of the principals envisioned Mark Martin’s success this year, as well as the fifty-year old’s early decision to commit to returning in 2010. A pleasant development, but a fly in the ointment for Brad’s move to Cup.
But, who knows, perhaps Penske and Keselowski experience early success and decide it’s a good situation for both owner and driver. Penske could certainly use some stability in the organization, and I’m sure he’d like to see Keselowski become to the Penske team what Jeff Gordon was to Hendrick 16 years ago, a talented and successful driver around whom you could build an entire organization.
so you think Penske will try and push for a longer contract (4-5 years) with SERIOUS monetary implications for leaving early? He knows Brad doesnt have any other legit options. So it seems like Brad would be kind of forced to sign whatever deal Penske offers.
IMO Hendrick couldnt have been less tactful than he was last weekend, kinda seemed like an ass. We all know he get what he wants, like debris cautions at the push of a button, but there is no reason to say the things he did. He just seems like dick.
What’s really hard to believe here is that Penske accepts the fact that his race teams are a step below Hendrick’s. He also can’t be happy knowing that Kurt is mostly on his own when it comes to setups and etc. I’m quite disappointed in Stremme’s performance this year as are alot of folks. Guess it’s a no brainer that a great many drivers can’t master the COT, Stremme included.
I can’t believe Stremme is losing this ride!! I thought he was going to be a chase contender for sure after his statements earlier this year. I wonder if the Penske organization is now a “second rate” operation in his eyes… I also wonder if any of the second rate teams he drove for previously will give his a seat next year?
I wonder how K’s contract will work out. Does Penske take a gamble & sign him long turn hoping Brad is successful & Hendrick will be forced to pay big $$’s to buy him out? If offered a long term contract, will Brad take it or will he only sign for a year or two thinking Hendrick is waiting in the wings until a seat opens up?
Amazing what restrictor plate win can do for your personal worth!
“K” ought to be lavishing Carl Edwards w/ expensive gifts.
I understand what you are saying, however two key points, first Ganassi (EGR) isn’t a good option at all and second Hendrick has already put money into Brad considering he is already running part time in the Cup Series in both the #25 and the #09.
Note: The #25 is a Hendrick car, but in alot of ways, so is the #09 Cup Series car, thats Hendrick equipment and support.
Personally I believe Brad should spend one more year in the Nationwide Series running in the #88 for the championship while running part time in the cup series with a veteran driver helping him.
As for Penske Racing, its not a good fit for Brad (if he goes there), there is no veteran driver to bring him along, Kurt Busch is not a veteran to me, he still has alot of work to do. (yes I know he’s a Cup Series Champion). And that goes for Gibbs Racing too…All he would have is the coach.
The only place I think Brad should go is unopen, which would be RCR to replace Kevin Harvick in the #29 Shell-Pennzoil Chevrolet. Burton standup veteran driver who knows how to drive.
Sure, Hendrick isn’t losing anything…but, c’mon–what are the odds Brad WON’T struggle in Penske equipment with Penske people? It hasn’t exactly done wonders for anyone else; Kurt Busch is the only one not struggling this year in that team.
Could have been worse, I guess–he could have been seriously looking at Ganassi and the Black Widow.
two things stand out with this deal,,, Rick Hendrick is not the great person everyone says he is (I’ve said that for years) and what part of Brad’s career makes anyone think he will be a great cup driver? in 5 years remember that I said he will be mediocre at best,, and no I’m not a hater.
RD: Why isn’t EGR a good option? They’ve got an open, sponsored ride and have a car inside the Chase…
Why is Penske the loser here? First of all, he is getting Stremme out of the 12 car so improvement in performance is the only option. Penske=Winner. Second, if BK leaves after just a season or two, the seat opens up for Justin Algaier, who probably has more upside potential than Brad. Penske = Winner. Lastly, if somehow Penske keeps BK, then he’d have both BK and Algaier in his stable going forward. Penske = Winner.
I’m not saying that Hendrick is a loser in this situation, far from it. But I don’t think Penske is either. I think the only losers in this situation are Stremme and the 12 team that has had to fix all the cars Stremme broke this year.
First of all Penske is the only choice, Ganassi has only one car that has full time sponsorship. RCR has no room at the inn also no matter how much Harvick want to be part of Stewart Haas he is under contract till next year.
It is all about sponsorship period. Streme was being sponsored by Penske it was coming directly out of his pocket, and they were not able to get sponsorship for him. Also he is close to having to race himself in..I understand the car is hard to drive but he hasn’t got the best finishes he could have. Not really smart at knowing who to race out there, and making sure they get the best finish. Wasn’t even able to get a top ten.
It all comes down to sponsorship period if Brad was able to bring in mega bucks he would be in a HMS satelitte car right now. Penske is making a major investment to attract sponsorship to Brad. Newman left cause he wasn’t able to get sponsorship in mediocre equipment. Kurt able to run well to keep Miller Sponsorship..he should with 25million plus a year on the line they will do anything or spend any amount to make them run well. Plus Roger is a great mentor, its Brad’s best option since the economy is slowly turning around. Not sure how much longer HMS will be on top without Chevy support.
Like Justin but he should have brought home at least a win already they have pretty good equipment in NW but no mentors. Pops in worth his weight in gold. Hey it’s about business and money. Penske was the only one that can afford to take his own money and sponsor a Cup team full time..
I think EGR would have been a great scenario. By staying with Chevy, Brad could have stayed in the #88 NNS and kept very close ties with HMS and the sponsors that have worked with him over the last 2 years.
Here’s what could be happening behind the scenes. Since Roger Penske is a pretty straight shooter, Rick Hendrick may be working on a deal where Brad K. would be “loaned out” to drive for Penske racing for say 2 years, with the stipulation that Hendrick gets Brad back after that. By then the futures of the #5, #24, and even the #88 will be clear. Don’t think it can’t happen? Check your history. Roger Penske has on more than one occasion farmed out his Indy car drivers for a year. Most notably Paul Tracy for 1 year in the early ’90′s. Why would Penske be agreeable to this? Because it gives his Nationwide drivers 2 more years to develope. With Brad K. not returning to Jr. Motorsports in 2010, there’s no manufacture’s conflict. Problem solved, a WIN-WIN for both Hendrick and Penske.
i’m pretty sure james finch buys cars from multiple teams. so it’s not “hendrick cars supported by hendrick” but it’s a few cars of his in their fleet, no? i could be wrong.
Oh, get over this nonsense about Keselowski bring “loaned out” to Penske. In what dream world would Penske allow that to be true?
Here’s what Hendrick did wrong–yes, did wrong–he didn’t think that Keselowski would leave HMS. How could Brad? HMS is the best equipment there is, right? But Brad did leave, he wanted to be in Cup, and how much longer was he supposed to wait? For Martin to really retire? No, Mark has indicated that he’ll stay as long as Hendrick wants him to–long past the 2010 season. Maybe Jeff Gordon retires because of back problems. Don’t count on it. I think he’d like to be # 2 on the all time wins list and that means driving a few more years. My guess he’ll aim for age 42. Replace JR? Not going to happen. Johnson? Ha! Stewart-Haas third car? That’s going to Harvick. Finch supported by Hendrick? Nope. Think about it, Brad’s win was at Talladega was fluke–everybody gets their first win there. And besides Keselowski hasn’t exactly done all that great in the #25 car–a fully supported HMS ride.
So, Keselowski leaves Hendrick for Penske, what’s Rick supposed to do? He put the best spin possible on it, “He’ll always be close enough…”
Well, yeah, of course he’ll be close enough. Brad will be the guy in the Penske car challenging (with Kurt Busch) for a Chase spot next year and at least two of his guys will be missing it.
Oh, while I’m on this–all three of Penske cars win next year–how’s that for a prediction?
#15, Im sure Finch runs a Dodge with all his other drivers. Fellows ran a Chevy in his ringer races, but he too has ties with HMS.
It was my understanding that Keselowski was given these races in the Finch car to get him more time in a Cup ride. HMS could only field a 5th car for so many races.
I think Rick worked this out with Finch to give Brad more races and keep him from going to Penske last year.
Other than Bliss at Richmond. all other attempt’s for Finch in a Dodge ended very early
T.C., Why isn’t EGR a good option? I understand that EGR has an open seat, namely the #1 ride with a sponsor and a car inside the chase, however in my opinion they may have the resources, but there is no veteran driver to help him along like Mark Martin, Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart or Ryan Newman, namely no help to bring him along.
Second that EGR seat would be better filled with a veteran, not a rookie, plus look what happened to Regan Smith, Aric Almirola, Jeffrey Earnhardt and Sean Caisse those rookies are gone, they just don’t have it with rookie drivers.
My opinion on Brad Keselowski…
Candyalmonds- EGR has two fully sponsored/mostly sponsored cars for next season and only one driver. That’s the only open (or apparently open) sponsored ride in the series.
Guess the deal is done and I suspect Roger didn’t even come close to making any kind of future deal w/ Hendrick over Brad. Penske is a sharp dude and hopefully has a plan to replace Stremme. Speaking of which, maybe wasn’t the smartest person to put in the #12 this year. Even RP makes mistakes.