With all that has happened this year, one storyline that has seemingly been lost in the shuffle a bit is the situation at Team Red Bull. Another “we’re getting closer” story about Red Bull’s plans for 2010 and beyond appeared over the weekend on NASCAR.com. We didn’t learn anything new from it, and TRB’s GM Jay Frye remained non-committal on their driver and manufacturer situation beyond 2009.
Since coming into the Cup Series in 2007, Red Bull has struggled to find success on track. Brian Vickers has been close on several occasions over the last few years, but has yet to find victory lane in his #83 Toyota. The 84/82 team looked to be gaining ground last season with AJ Allmendinger, but a driver swap late in the year put the team back at square one with rookie Scott Speed. Speed now appears to be struggling through the same learning curve that Allmendinger had already cleared and he has not qualified for three races this season.
Red Bull is currently in a contract year with both Toyota and driver Brian Vickers. There have been rampant rumors that TRB is considering switching manufacturers, and that they will become a Chevy team with support from Hendrick Motorsports much like Stewart Haas Racing. Toyota officials have said they would like to continue their relationship with the team, but Frye and team owner Dietrich Mateschitz have yet to make a decision.
Back on June 10th, ESPN reported that Vickers had signed a multi-year extension to his contract and that an announcement would come soon. No announcement ever came. Vickers has said on several occasions since then that he wants to return to TRB but doesn’t know why the deal has yet to be finalized. Frye keeps saying they are getting “closer.”
While I don’t have a ton of specific information about the situation at TRB (I don’t think anybody really does), this whole situation baffles me. First, Red Bull was one of the initial Toyota teams. I don’t understand why they would walk away from factory funding and support from Toyota so they could buy engines and support from HMS. An in-flow of cash and resources seems to me like it would be better then an out-flow.
Second, it’s curious that a team would take so long to lock down their only consistently successful driver. I could maybe see it if Vickers was on the down slope of his career, but that doesn’t seem to be the case here (he is only 25). Neither Allmendinger nor Speed have come close to equaling Vickers’ performances over the last three seasons, and I think it would be unwise to let Vickers walk. Since joining TRB in 2007, Vickers is having his best season to date. His average finish and average start are better, he is higher in the points, and he has more top tens and equaled his top five finishes from 2008.
With all of this said, I have a theory I’d like to throw out into the universe for you to think about.
Rick Hendrick wants to keep Brad Keselowski in the family. I think that is obvious. But with the four car limit and Mark Martin’s recent success, Mr. H. doesn’t have room for Brad K. at HMS. The most obvious solution to many would be to put Keselowski in a car at HMS satellite Stewart-Haas Racing. But there is a problem with this. SHR still has not secured full sponsorship for Ryan Newman’s team. They have a partial deal with the US Army, but Haas Automation appears on that car regularly. What if they can’t find sponsorship for Keselowski to start a third team at SHR? Stewart and Hendrick certainly aren’t going to fund a ride for Brad out of their pockets. What’s the next best deal? Team Red Bull.
Say Rick Hendrick appoaches Jay Frye (they do have history) and says put Brad in one of your cars and we’ll support your team under the Chevy banner. This works for Hendrick because he gets to keep Keselowski under contract, but doesn’t have to find sponsorship because the TRB cars are self funded.
The problem then lies with which driver at Red Bull gets the boot. Red Bull owner Mateschitz made it known last year that he was not willing to fund a three car operation, so that means either Vickers or Speed would be replaced if my theory is correct. But who is the odd man out? Is it Vickers, who is the foundation of the team? Or is it the struggling Speed who appears to be favored by Red Bull’s brass?
Between negotiating with Hendrick and Keselowski, and trying to make a decision about which driver gets brought back for 2010, these may be the reasons why this situation has yet to be rectified.
Keep in mind that this is all speculation on my part. I’m just thinking out loud (well in words anyway) and trying to connect some dots. I may be completely off base, but let that roll around in your head and tell me what you come up with.
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on Aug 4th, 2009 at 6:01 am
If Nascar intent was to limit 5 car teams to 4, because of competition, they better and fast start writing or admending there comcept!
Hendrick a shewd and controvesial team owner has found a way to bypass the spririt of the 5 team rule and especially if he gets Red Bull it is very very easy to see where he is headed in this!
He will control 8 cars!
Nascar needs to put brakes on it before Hendrick is a dictator in the sport!
He should be happy with what he has, look at all the wins and titles already, but for some millionaires you cannot get enough!
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 6:30 am
Nascar isnt going to put the brakes on anyone who will supply cars and engines as the manufacture’s drop off the map. Nascar has a proven track record of collecting dollars from anyone who fills their pockets. Roush has or will have 7 teams if they dump McMurray to Yates and Yates maintains Labotomy and Menurd as well. Toyota is stupid if they let TRB go. Special K isnt that great and hasnt shown all that hot in a Hendrick COT, so I wouldnt bet the farm on him just yet.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 7:27 am
That’s a lot of effort and $ on Hendrick’s part to keep Keselowski (sort of). Is K that good that Hendrick wants to lay out $ to help TRB just to keep him nearby if/when Martin or Gordon retire?
The delay may just be TRB realizing that they don’t lose anything by holding off on Vickers (given that there aren’t a lot of open seats that Vickers could fill) and just waiting to see if some opportunity pops up.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 8:19 am
I have to agree w/ both Charles and Jerry here.
Charles’ fear of mega teams is warranted, when it comes to competition. Indy was a classic example of why mega teams and satellites ruin the sport. Think Mark Martin would have pushed the envelope on JJ a lot harder those final laps if JJ weren’t a partner? You bethcha. I’m all for capitalism and teams making money, but the racing has and will suffer if it’s not an all out dog fight to the end. NASCAR lost that element after Big E.
Jerry is right here on Brad K. There is talent there, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on K just yet.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 8:23 am
Let’s not forget that Vickers left Hendrick on a sour note. Especially after his last-lap wrecking of Jimmy Johnson (who was in the thick of the Chase at the time) and Dale Jr. to win the Fall race at Talladega.
Yeah, Brad K. did help put Edwards into the fence for his Spring Talladega win this year, but at least Brad had the sense to take out a rival team car, not a teammate.
And speaking of teammate trouble, Vickers lost points with Mateschitz after spouting off over Speed’s incompetence after a run-in at the New Hampshire NNS race. Advancing Speed’s driving career has been a pet project for Mateschiz.
Yeah, T.C., I think there is something to your theory that about HMS support being tied to replacing Vickers with Kesselowski at RBR.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 8:58 am
Neon: Normally you and I are pretty close on how we think and look at stuff, but this notion that teammates somehow go easier on each other in competition couldn’t be further from the truth. And I’m surprised that somebody with racing experience would think that. Yeah, Mark Martin probably isn’t going to wreck Jimmie to win the Brickyard (he’s never wrecked anybody for a win), but do we not remember Martinsville in 2007 with Gordon and Johnson racing for the win? Johnson kept chopping him and Gordon laid the bumper to him, but couldn’t get by. That doesn’t sound like teammates taking it easy on each other.
And this also goes along with “support” teammates. Tony Stewart isn’t going to take it easy on Dale Jr. just because they both have Hendrick power, and vice versa. If anything, it makes them race harder.
I’ll give you another example. How about Juan Pablo Montoya wrecking Scott Pruett at Mexico a few years back with only a few laps left? The 40 and 42 teams at CGR almost ended up in a brawl over this one.
So if you think that all these teammates and alliances somehow makes the racing less intense, you are nuts. Let’s remember this isn’t Formula One!
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 9:07 am
When Vickers says he has an oral contract, what he’s saying (in legal terms) is that he and the owner of Red Bull Racing have agreed on all the terms of the contract. An oral contract is legally binding in many states. It’s called “a meeting of the minds” and is legally enforcable, even if nothing is in writing. In this instance, there is a written document that Vickers has signed. If he should walk away, Red Bull could sue him. Conversely, Vickers is in the same legal position – he too could sue if they dump him. This could get very, very messy.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 9:55 am
Maybe Kevin Harvick is the missing piece of this puzzle.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 10:25 am
Off topic but:
“do we not remember Martinsville in 2007 with Gordon and Johnson racing for the win?”
Yes we do. One of my favorite races ever. Sitting there & being able to watch that whole deal develop was amazing. Great scanner chatter between Jeff in Rick.
Jeff: Boss, what do I do?
Rick: You’re the owner of that car, what are you asking me for? Do what you have to do.
Jimmy did not sound like he thought Jeff was giving him a break. I think most other drivers would not have been able to hold on to the #48 & it would’ve ended up in the wall.
On topic:
I don’t see why Hendrick would go to those extremes just to hold on to Brad unless he is remembering letting Kyle go & might regret that. Brad is no where near Kyle though in raw talent. I think making the manufacturer switch on TRB’s part would be pretty dumb on their part unless they are now the low man of Toyota’s teams & aren’t getting the support they think they should be getting. It’s a huge gamble. Would they become a team closer to Haas racing pre or post Tony Stewart? I think the drivers for TRB will factor in a lot in determining that & any combination of Vickers, Speed, or Keselowski is a far cry from Stewart/Newman. I see a pre-Tony Haas situation in their future should they make the move to Chevy.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 11:49 am
I’ve never understood the Speed deal. He isn’t half the driver of AJ or Vickers and neither has he shown the same friendly public persona as those two. Is he related to someone in the RB corporation perhaps?
Actually, by next season, we will likely see no one but RHM, Roush, and JGR with full sponsorships. But that will be ok, I suppose, since they already own half the field anyhow. And come next year they may own more than half because unless things change, I don’t see 43 cars running.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
I think for TRB to let Vickers go would be a mistake. I know they really like Speed, but he is not getting it done. I think Vickers and Keselowski would make better team than Speed/Kese. I do see Rick making someone a sweet deal to keep Kese racing under his banner. Lets not forget that Rick was the mastermind behind having a 4 car race team.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
Licker: I don’t see why Hendrick would go to those extremes just to hold on to Brad….
How much influence does Dale Jr wield in this deal I wonder?
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Perhaps Rick Hendrick’s wanting to keep Brad Keselowski around has something to do with dale Jr. I dont care if you are Rick Hendrick do you really want to piss of nascars chosen one? The person who can always have sponsership no matter how badly the performance is? Hendrick and Dale jr are close and Keselowski is dale jr’s prodigy so to speak.
off topic: Nascar is making a mistake by limiting teams to only 4 cars. In this economy if a team can get sponsorship and afford the cars they should be able to have all the cars they want. I understand the reasoning behind it but now that the economy is as bad as it is that rule should be placed on hold until things turn around.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
TC-thanks for the honorable mention in my investigative ploy to figure out if you are a TC for a mega team. Perhaps your tactics are but a decoy.
Now I realize the JJ/JG Martinsville duel was short track and not Indy, where MM just loses the front end and cannot get close to JJ in theory. But fancy this, if Indy was the final race of the chase and they were about tied MM would have stuck his nose in deep and influenced JJ to just about wreck to take the win. If JPM was shuffled to second at the restart behind JJ, last race or not he goes in much, much deeper on JJ than MM did.
See how you guys remember that Martinsville race? You loved it, right? But you had to go back to 2007 to find a thrilling example of a teammates duke’in it out for the coveted trophy. That’s what I’m talk’in about!
IMHO Teammates “points race” with each other most of the time, but not until it gets down to crunch time to they pull the gloves off. That’s why I like 1st time winners. There is a sense of “I may not get this opportunity again…..ever!”.
Being of an on-track mind set, you are right, the last thing I want to see is teammates, or not, take one another out. That’s too easy. I want “all’ competitors to absolutely push the envelope as if there is no tomorrow. Professionals will find a way to get it done with some leaning on each other. When teammates aplenty are involved, there is always that second set of “what ifs” that flash through the mind at speed. Seems like the worst sport for teams selecting the “chosen” rider is cycling Tour de France. At least this year there was some inter-team trash talking. On the flip side, how about Michael Phelps beating the Serbian dude last w/e after trash talk. That my friend, if you happened to catch it live, was a race fueled by pure passion and intensity.
Can’t really use the Pruett and Pablo saga. Those two were about as far from teammates as you could get. Heck! Chipster didn’t mind a bit that JPM made a stupid dive bomb move in Mexico because Ganassi had something to prove bringing over the F1 defector (in Latin America to boot). That Busch race was a throw away for Chip w/ two non-points drivers…hardly a comparison to the teammate issue. I would have, however, loved to have been in “that” post race mtg w/ the three amigos.
Just trying to stir the TNI pot.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
steve & licker – HMS would not be spending any money to get TRB under the HMS umbrella. Remember the lawsuit between HMS Holdings & MB2/Ginn/DEI over the engine lease? There was substantial coin being paid to HMS. Now throw in chassis, wind tunnel, shaker rigs, engineering support, etc… and there is BIG money that would go from TRB to HMS. Then if he can keep Brad under his wing, all the better.
I agree that dumping Vickers would be a mistake for TRB. While I never see BV being a champion, he is pretty good and pretty mature now. He can provide solid feedback to the engineers. TRB suffered through a year with Dinger learning the cars, just in time to dump him as he is starting to improve. They are living through it again with Speed.
I think Brad is talented, but not as talented as he thinks he is. I think he has been reading too many of his own press clippings. He still makes too many mistakes and wrecks too many people.
I also agree that NASCAR is not going to do anything to stop the alliances. Before this rule was adopted, technically no owner could have more than 2 cars. It had nothing to do with who actually owned stock in the company. It was just when you paid for the owner’s license who you listed. That is why you saw Papa Joe, Kenseth, Gordon, Geoff Smith, etc…
When they adopted this rule, you already had alliances between JGR/HOF, HMS/MB2 and Roush/Wood/Yates. It was very easy to see how this was going to unfold. Not that they wanted to, but IF they WANTED to, that was the time to stop it.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
TC, even F1 drivers have taken out their own teammates! I seem to remember that happening in Australia this year. Even F1 doesn’t have team orders anymore so this whole concept of helping/softplaying teammates doesn’t work for me anywhere but Talladega/Daytona. Those are the only two tracks where yes, teammates will work together and leave non-teammates out to dry. Semi-team members find each other too like Stewart & Earnhardt who have worked together in restrictor plate races. So yeah, teammates don’t do anything to help nor hurt each other IMO.
I don’t think NASCAR cares either about team owners semi-owning teams like is going on with Roush-Yates and Hendrick-et al. When they set a 4-team limit, the economy was way different and sponsors were throwing hookers through bedroom windows to get spots on cars. Everyone had excess money and NASCAR was the popular marketing tool earlier this decade. Now, everyone is rolling pennies to get by and no one wants to “waste” money sponsoring a stock car. I doubt they intervene with these guys at all, maybe down the road they will if the sponsor dollars start rolling in again.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
I agree with comments on Red Bull Racing, first I think they should have kept A.J. Allmendinger, he had already cleared the problmes Scott Speed is having now, Second, if they really wanted to stay with Toyota (unless its negotiation way to get a better deal with Toyota) they would say it that they want to stay and sign already, but since they haven’t, it leaves me wondering, of course a contract contract could be forcoming, but then again maybe not.
On Vicker, his contract is up and can be released, but mark my words, Red Bull has invested a lot on Scott Speed, they will not release him, maybe not racing in the Cup, but they will keep him, that’s there boy. Vickers would be the one out if they want another driver.
As for leaving toyota, I agree with about the support, but consider this, Hendrick and Stewart-Haas Racing are having huge success this season, Red Bull wants that too and they might believe that with Hendrick equipment and support, they might be able to successed, plus Brad Keselowsk is a good driver, he might fit in there only if they are moving to Chevrolet.
BTW: Chevrolet might not give them factory support anymore or very little, but consider this, if I were starting a team today in the Cup Series, I would want Hendrick equipment and support, that is worth its weight in gold if I could get the right people in place. I.e like Stewart-Haas Racing has done.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
I could buy this as a possibility. I really think Rick see’s Brad in one of his cars in the future, if Mark wasn’t running so well he would be part time in the 5 next year. Can’t say I blame Mark for re-upping for 2010. I actually think Brad would be willing to stay in NW fulltime if Rick can guarentee he’ll have a part time ride next year with someone and fulltime in 2011. I don’t think he regrets losing Kyle Busch he is way too high maintainence. BV didn’t leave Hendrick on a sour note, he’s still friends with JJ (despite Talledega) and keeps in touch with Hendrick, his main reason for leaving (not counting the curse of the 25) was it was a constant reminder of the loss of his best friend. Too be honest I always thought BV would be back at some point.
on Aug 4th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
Newracefan: “I actually think Brad would be willing to stay in NW fulltime if Rick can guarentee he’ll have a part time ride next year with someone and fulltime in 2011″
I think Rick may have pulled this deal last year to keep Keselowski from going to another team. Im sure Brad could have got a full time ride this year in cup. Rick added to his races this year by putting him in HMS cars with Finch racing.
Question for anyone: Would Martin still run full time next year if he wins the cup this year?
on Aug 5th, 2009 at 8:28 am
Good question Tom in TN.
IHMO I think he would, at most, run part time again w/ Champions rights and mentor the remainder.
As much as MM has said that he didn’t “have” to win the Cup to consider himself successful, deep down he does “need” to win it to feel content. You don’t finish 2nd that many times only to be left without. I just hope the points differential from running 1st at Indy vs 2nd to JJ doesn’t cement another 2nd fiddle spot for Mark at the banquet.
on Aug 13th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
I think it would be dum to let Brain go Scott would turn it around and a better second half next year he might surpise a few as for Brad he might do the same thing be in the 09 and 25 cars then see what happens after the 2010 season. He might get a ride in the 1 car or the 8 might return if Chip ask him to drive and it’s a chevy team .Red bull going to chevy after toyota help out would be a mistake the team is finally getting the finish they need if brain gets into the CHASE then what ?