May 5th, 2009 
Journo Let me preface what I am about to write by saying I think Brad Keselowski has a lot of talent and potential. Without a doubt he is positioned to be the “future” of the sport. With Rick Hendrick and Dale Earnhardt Jr. behind him he also has an enviable amount of resources.
All that being said, I think far too much is being made of Brad’s win at Talladega. That win, as we have all seen, has given him a lot more attention from those inside and outside the sport. He is saying he now wants to run full-time in 2010 and is in discussions with Hendrick Motorsports about his future with the organization.
This season in the Nationwide Series, Keselowski started out slow. Through the first four races he didn’t have a finish inside the top-10. T.C. even wrote a post about Keselowski’s slow start. Since then he has turned it around. He has three third place finishes, one fourth place and one ninth place. He has improved his point standings to fifth, but he is still 213 points away from leader Kyle Busch. There is a lot of season left though.
Keselowski’s Cup starts on the other hand have not been too hot. He missed Daytona (in a Finch/Hendrick car) and then scored a 38th and 23rd in a fifth Hendrick car. Not exactly lighting the world on fire.
When he got to Talladega no one expected him to do as well as he did. He qualified ninth and stayed up front most of the day. Most importantly he didn’t get caught up in anything. Throughout the course of the race he led only one lap; the one that took him across the finish line.
Now don’t get me wrong a win is a win, but Talladega is one of those tracks where you just have to be in the right place at the right time, and at the end of the day Brad was. He is certainly not the first driver to win his first race at the track.
From my quick research, I believe nine drivers, including Keselowski, have had their first win at Talladega (please feel free to correct me if you have information to the contrary). They range in prominence from Lennie Pond (1978) to Brian Vickers (2006). History though shows us this is not a good a place to get a first win at. Eight of the nine first time winners scored their only career win at the track. The ninth driver is Jimmy Spencer who only has one other win. Brian Vickers and now Keselowski are the only active drivers to have won their first race at the track.
So I guess my point is, winning at Talladega is great, but it is no indicator of success in the Cup Series. In fact it may even be bad luck if it’s your first win. That being said if anyone is going to break the cycle I think it could be this young man. This win though should not be made to be more than what it is. And I think the driver shouldn’t make more of it than what it is.
As always tell us what you think!
UPDATE: I missed a first time winner at Talladega. Ken Schrader also got his first win at the track. He went on to win three more races. – Thanks for catching that Brandon!
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I agree with the majority of this article. Just a quick note, as it should be rather obvious… although Brad hasn’t done well in previous cup starts, the cars are 100% different as you know from the Nationwide cards. He is still new to them, and new to the cup series. No one really expected him to come in and win right away in the Cup series, to the best of my knowledge. So, while all the history of first time winner at Talladega could hold true, I think given the team he is likely to drive for and his talent level should give him a shot at being really competitive. I actually think Brad could end up being a more successful driver than Joey Logano, even given all the hype around Joey. That being said, I still agree with the central point of your article. Keep on writing the best blog!
Let’s see how well Brad runs at Darlington this weekend (provided he makes the show). He is going to be a Hendrick car with a Hendrick motor, so he has no real excuses. Anything less than a top-15 run would be a disappointment.
Jon – While Joey Logano has struggled this year, he seemed to be improving these last three or four races. I think he will become more competitive in the second half of the season.
Brad’s got talent but a win at Talladega does not even come close to a win at Darlington, a track where you can take most of the luck factor out. You almost have to drive a perfect race & have consistent awesome pit stops to win, no making a mistake or having a bad pit & coming back up through the draft.
I think Brad needs to stay in the Nationwide series an grow a bit. Of course, it’s hard for a nationwide driver to do much when there are 15 cup drivers in every race. We have seen to many guys make the jump to soon after showing a little promise that did not last. Brad Coleman, Aric Almarola, Brendan Gaughn, Casey Atwood, David Gilliland, Joey Logano the list goes on and on. Gilliland won a Busch race at Kentucky and was in a cup car weeks later. A lot of good that has done him…….. I like Brad, he has talent but it still needs to grow.
Not to take anything away from Keselowski, his win came after the field was thinned out. Had it not been for the wrecks his finish would have had a different conclusion.
That being said,He’s a good driver that needs a little more time in the Busch series.
Journo,you pounded that nail home with one hit.
I agree Brad is a good up and coming driver and Talladega doesn’t guarantee future success at Darlington, or anywhere else. I don’t, however, think Nationwide is necessarily the required stepping stone that it used to be. With the all to familiar (15) CUP drivers in the NW field, why not hit the big league from the get go? Whether you face them in NW or CUP, the cars are now distinctly different enough not to translate. The list of names of drivers shoved into CUP early, only to be a distant memory, may just be irrelevant today. The COT is supposed to level the playing field, so if a rookie shows he/she can cut it (based on talent) he/she deserves to stay……just not based on Pop’s money. The unfortunate aspect of motorsport is that it is primarily marketing ability. You stay in the NFL, NBA, NHL or MLB based on talent.
I know many fans don’t like Kyle, whether based on driving style or attitude (fair enough), but make no mistake about it…he has raised the bar for the competition both old and new. I see Keselowski with the same type drive and Hendrick won’t let this tiger get away. Not twice!
You talk about his other starts in cup and how he was not so “hot”. Do you know Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson? Their limited schedules looked just the same. Do a little research before you bash someone.
I have to agree with Boby#7 there. Too many NNS drivers try to move up too early and end up with a decent amount of money but not a decent amount of wins, see: Sorenson, Reed and Mears, Casey, and Leffler, Jason. Let him hang out another year or two to mature a little.
Toolshark- I don’t think I was bashing anyone. How many times do I have to say I think the kid is good? I will put it in caps next time. Obviously his limited schedule is not an indication of how he will run full time. I apologize if that is the way it came off. I kind of thought that went without saying. His one win at Talladega is not an indicator either though. That was my point. In all fairness though his limited runs have not been stellar or “hot” as I put it in the post. If you’ll notice I do talk about his solid runs this year in the Nationwide car and I do point to my belief that if anyone can break the cycle of bad luck for first time winners at the track it is Keselowski. I think the kid has talent as I said in the post and I believe he will be able to run well in the Cup Series when that time comes. Again I just don’t think this win should cloud anyone’s perception of the situation. Next time please read the post a little more carefully before you accuse me of bashing someone.
First the Cup entry list on Jayski says Marlin is in a Finch Dodge, not Brad so it appears he will not run a cup car at Darlington. Second I don’t think we should take anything away from Brads win. The restrictor plate tracks are among the toughest races, it’s all mental, not pysical. Brad did one heck of a job, he was smart enoug not to cause the big one. (most rookies do cause the big one) due to lack of experence. Third he was smart enough to realize that two cars were faster then 1 or 3 in the upper lane. The kid pushed Carl at about 10 mph faster than Tony and Jr to past Carl attempting to block, without crashing. How many rookies could have complete that past at 190 mph to win, Regan Smith could’nt do it last year. So all in all the kid did a great job. Now I do agree that a little more time in NW is neccessary, but don’t sell Brad short. Don’t think this win is any easier than any other win. Mr. H will decide when Brad is ready. I personally think you will see Brad in a part time cup ride next year for Jr Motorsports and a fulltime NWS ride, This may be how Jr recovers the #8 and some of his old sponsors, remember Bud comes up for renewal next season.
Ken Schrader won his first cup race at Talladega and won 3 more cup races.
Thanks Jim! Brandon beat you to it. I updated the post down at the bottom. Sorry for overlooking that.
Davey Allison got his first win at Talladega… and look at how good he turned out to be.
I’m not sold on Keselowski, but I think it’s ultimately going to depend on what kind of equipment he gets.
Sir i think that if Brad is going to drive in the cup he sould run a car for Jr. Motor Spts. i think that would be a fine thing to do for Dale Jr. and his company with Hendrix behind him. I will agree he is a good driver but i hope Jr.do not let him go for i am a sure Jr. fan from the start, oh well things will work out some how. Thank you for the time.