This weekend’s race at Bristol is the last chance for Cup Series teams to make their way into the top-35 in owner’s points before the points are reset. I thought it might be interesting to take a look at who may not be locked in.
The list below shows teams 30-40; conceivably teams from outside either end could enter the picture, but these guys are the most vulnerable.
30) #34-Andretti/Earnhardt Ganassi: 336 +59
31) #77-Hornish/Penske Racing: 328 +51
32) #39-Newman/Stewart Haas: 324 +47
33) #20-Logano/Gibbs Racing: 321 +44
34) #71-Gilliland/TRG: 301 +24
35) #5-Martin/Hendrick: 286 +11
36) #8-Almirola/Earnhardt Ganassi: 277
37) #82-Speed/Red Bull Racing: 256 -30
38) #98-Menard/Yates Racing: 238 -48
39) #28-Kvapil/Yates Racing: 214 -72
40) #78-Smith/Furniture Row: 206 -80
There are some obvious good and bad surprises on here.
Certainly no one expected Mark Martin or Ryan Newman to be in trouble. Martin of course has had a string of bad luck, from engine failures to blown tires he can’t catch a break right now. Newman too has had problems, but he differs from Martin in that he just hasn’t been running as strong with his new team. When Martin’s problems have hit him, he has been up front, the same can not be said for Newman. As we know team chemistry is key and Newman just might not be there yet with his guys.
Surprising or not, both of our rookie of the year contenders also reside in the danger zone. Scott Speed is in 37th and Joey Logano is in 33rd. Neither has really wowed so far in their inaugural season, but neither has much experience (in the upper levels of stock car racing) outside of this season. Speed has a partial season in the truck series and a full season in ARCA. He scored five wins between the two series in 2008. Logano last year had a partial season in the Nationwide Series and scattered starts in Truck, ARCA and Cup. He has one Nationwide win under his belt. So while both are struggling, it is understandable. They are both very much rookie drivers.
Aric Almirola is another young driver who has been struggling. You’ve got to wonder how much longer Chip Ganassi and the fine folks at EGR are going to be willing to keep his deal going if he does not have a guaranteed spot. We have heard the odds are not looking good for Almirola if sponsorship can not be secured.
On the bright side though, how about David Gilliland? He only has three starts in the Cup Series and has his TRG Chevrolet in the top-35. The team has only limited sponsorship with Capital Window but it sounds like they are ready to go the distance if they can maintain their points position. Not bad for a last minute deal.
Most absent from the top-40 are favorite underdogs Jeremy Mayfield Motorsports and Tommy Baldwin Racing. It is not too likely that either of these teams are going to crack into the top-35 this weekend, but if they can have good runs they can certainly cut the deficit. Their biggest challenge is just making races, which they have had trouble with at Las Vegas and Atlanta.
Whatever happens, expect to see some surprises. Bristol, as I am sure most of you know, is a wild card. Crazy things can happen there and it does not take a lot to have a bad day. Bet on all these teams to be running their hearts out for that coveted top-35 spot.
Now it’s your turn. Are you surprised by any of the teams on the bubble? Who do you think will be the winners and losers after Bristol? Do you think JMM and TBR can get into the top-35?
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on Mar 19th, 2009 at 3:45 am
Ryan Newman and Mark Martin are huge surprises for me. I did not really expect Newman to be running up front this early in his new team, but I did not expect him to be where he is!
Sam Hornish Jr. is even beating Newman in the points.
So, Sam could be another surprise for me. I though he would be lower in points.
Martin I thought for sure would be running up front with the big dogs.
None of the other are surprises although I would like to see Speed and Kvapil doing better.
on Mar 19th, 2009 at 7:32 am
I thought Andretti drove for Front Row. Teresa owns the car though so I don’t know. He’s a huge surprise for me sitting in 30th with that team.
on Mar 19th, 2009 at 7:54 am
Usually missing just 1 race this early in the season can be a death sentence, but here Gilliland is holding his own 34 th after only 3 points paychecks. Keep it rolling David and show Yates they made a mistake!
The race for 35th is is bit like the on track battle for the transfer spot at the Chili Bowl. That’s where being at the track, instead of TV viewing, pays off. You get to watch the battles deep in the pack for critical spots.
on Mar 19th, 2009 at 8:58 am
windowlicker: Andretti does drive for Front Row. But Teresa is listed as the owner on all the forms and standings because they got the points from DEI’s 15 car. If you look at the standings in all three series, you notice weird owners for some cars. Like in the Nationwide Series, Chip Ganassi is listed as the owner of the #42 even though it’s owned by Evander Holyfield. When Holyfield and his group bought the team, they bought everything, but NASCAR still recognizes it as Ganassi owned because of the owner points from the season before.
on Mar 19th, 2009 at 10:40 am
Newman really is a shock. He has a good team so things better get going soon. Ryan needs to get up on the wheel. Personally, I am pulling for Mayfield and Almirola to make good moves.
on Mar 19th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
Journo-just curious here on two items. First, how many cars are typically showing up to qualify? With top 35 locked in & leaving 8 available, how many are usually sent packing each week. Secondly, looking at the points in your article, why did you choose to make the 36th spot the baseline for +/- differential? Wouldn’t you use the 35th spot, but then again, I am not an accountant or odds maker by any means. Interesting article!
on Mar 19th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Neon – to your first question, it really just depends on the track. There are 45 on the entry list for Bristol but there was something like 57 on the list at Daytona. Granted not all those guys are necessarily going to try to make the race. In general there are between 43 and 50 teams trying to make a race.
On your second question, I actually borrowed this breakdown from Jayski, but they are using that as a base line for the teams above 36 because that is how many points they are above the cut off. For the guys below that, it uses 35th as the base line.