Where They’ve Been and Where They’re Going: Part 4

This is part four in the series, looking at how Cup teams fared in 2008, and where they are headed in 2009.  Each post will feature two teams and we will iron out details for the upcoming season and give our own projection for what to expect in ‘09.

Penske Racing

2008 started out on a high note for Penske Racing. Ryan Newman captured the team’s first Daytona 500 victory, and former IRL champ Sam Hornish Jr. climbed behind the wheel full time.

It was former champion Kurt Busch who entered 2008 with hopes of repeating his 2004 championship run. After finishing 2nd behind his teammate in the Daytona 500, it looked like he may well have been on his way. His effort though was hit or miss the remainder of the season. While he ultimately won Loudon, his average start and finish was the worst it had been since his first season in the Cup series in 2001.

Ryan Newman, always a favorite to have a breakout season, began 2008 with a victory in Daytona and his first win since 2005. However the 43 time pole winner had a less than stellar season, capturing just two top-5s and eight top-10s. He had his worst career average start and his second worst full time average finish. Despite this, in one of the worst kept secrets of the season, he announced he would be leaving Penske for the newly formed Stewart Haas Racing.

Sam Hornish Jr. joined the team full time in 2008. He helped usher in the brief influx of open wheel drivers. While Hornish began with promise he failed to gain footing in the series. Ultimately he failed to qualify for the races at Talladega and the season ending race at Homestead. His best finish of the season was 13th at the Coke 600 in Charlotte.

Penske’s promising 2008 became what can best be summed up as disappointing. Kurt Busch has struggled to gain footing at Penske. The successes he has had have been met with a lot of struggles. Likewise Sam Hornish Jr., who appears to have the confidence of Roger Penske is in a challenging position. He will enter 2009 outside the top-35 in points. Based on his qualifying failures at Talladega and Homestead, he might have a rough start to 2009. While there continue to be rumors floating around about his possible return to the IRL, my money would be on his return to NASCAR.

The loss of Ryan Newman may or may not be big for the team. David Stremme is making his Cup Series return with the team after being bounced by Ganassi in 2007. He had some successes in the Nationwide Series last year, and looked like he was headed for a decent finish in his only Cup Series start in 2008 before he wrecked. Despite the likelihood that Stremme will struggle, Newman hasn’t been great the last several seasons. Now whether that was lack of chemistry with his team, or something else, I can’t say.

Despite losing Kodak as a sponsor, the team still has Miller Lite on the #2 car, Mobil One on the #77 and Alltel on the #12. Alltel may present the team with trouble though with their announced merger with Verizon Wireless. It is highly unlikely that the Alltel name will be maintained and as we saw with AT&T, it is unlikely NASCAR and Sprint will allow a new competitor to enter the series.

Penske as always has promise, but I don’t think 2009 is going to be their season. It is a great organization which I have a lot of respect for, but their lineup is fresh (with the exception of Kurt Busch) and their struggles in the past couple of seasons looks likely to continue into 2009. 

Dale Earnhardt Inc.

DEI entered 2008 as a newer, larger organization; they consolidated their facilities, turning the large, former Ginn Racing headquarters into their Cup shop. Despite losing Dale Earnhardt Jr., the new and improved DEI had four Cup teams with Martin Truex Jr., Regan Smith, Paul Menard and Aric Almirola and Mark Martin sharing a ride.

Truex started 2008 as another driver with great promise. He struggled throughout the year though. When his contract came up in the middle of the season there was speculation that he might head elsewhere. With Mark Martin out of the picture though DEI had cash available to pay their new lead driver. Truex opted to re-sign. Ultimately he went winless and failed to qualify for the Chase.

Regan Smith joined DEI after Ginn Racing was bought out in 2007. The 24-year-old driver has had some success in lower series’, but wins have been elusive. Despite winning Rookie of the Year honors, the driver struggled this season. He had no top-5s and no top-10s. While the victory at Talladega was stolen out from under him, there weren’t many shining moments this season. As such he became the victim of the eventual merger. He is rumored to be headed to Furniture Row Racing.

In two full seasons with DEI Paul Menard’s star has not shown too brightly. He struggled in 2007, missing six races, and while he did make all the races this season his best finish of 2nd was his only top-5 and top-10 all year. He finished 26th in points, but opted to take his money to Yates Racing for 2009.

Aric Almirola and Mark Martin shared the #8 ride throughout the season. Both were inherited through the merger with Ginn and Martin was expected to do big things at DEI. While he did perform the best of all the DEI drivers, Martin was only in the car part time. Almirola, while not spectacular, showed marked improvement over 2007, posting his best finish of 8th at Martinsville. Martin announced toward the end of the year that he would be leaving DEI for Hendrick Motorsports to compete full time.

The loss of Paul Menard, Menard’s as a sponsor, Mark Martin and Army forced DEI to do the unthinkable at season’s end. The announced merger with Chip Ganassi Racing as reported was caused by the failure of the team to find sponsors and contractual obligations the team had with both Martin Truex and Bass Pro Shops, which stayed with the organization.

The merged team brings together Aric Almirola, Martin Truex Jr., Juan Pablo Montoya and a yet to be named fourth driver. The team only has two and half sponsors (Bass Pro Shops, Target and Wrigleys) for 2009, and the likelihood of that unannounced fourth driver remains to be seen.

I think this team has great potential for success in 2009. Truex is a powerhouse waiting for his opportunity and Montoya just needs help and consistency. While I think Almirola will struggle next season without the veteran guidance, I think he will have some solid runs here and there. Depending on who the fourth driver is I don’t see any reason why the organization can’t have two cars in the Chase in 2009.

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