Nothing in NASCAR has divided the fan base quite like the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Since it was instituted in 2004, it has been met with praise and skepticism. Some arguing it creates a playoff system that is much like every other American sport. Still others say it penalizes those who have success early on in the season, but struggle later on.
Whatever the case, as Jimmie Johnson edges closer to his third straight NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship I thought it would be interesting to take a look at where the drivers would stand if there were no Chase. Admittedly I am not the first to do this, but I have not seen someone do this in quite some time.
So in order to figure this out I took current points and subtracted them from the readjusted Chase points. I then added that number to the points following the last non-Chase race at Richmond International Raceway. They are as follows:
CURRENT NO-CHASE
1. Jimmie Johnson 6248 1. Jimmie Johnson 4784
2. Carl Edwards 6065 2. Carl Edwards 4686
3. Greg Biffle 6063 3. Kyle Busch 4581
4. Jeff Burton 6030 4. Jeff Burton 4404
5. Kevin Harvick 5941 5. Greg Biffle 4343
6. Jeff Gordon 5936 6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 4307
7. Clint Bowyer 5934 7. Kevin Harvick 4224
8. Tony Stewart 5847 8. Jeff Gordon 4157
9. Matt Kenseth 5835 9. Tony Stewart 4132
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 5829 10. Denny Hamlin 4048
11. Denny Hamlin 5823 11. Clint Bowyer 4040
12. Kyle Busch 5783 12. Matt Kenseth 3967
As you can see even without the Chase Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards and Jeff Burton maintain their respective positions in the standings. The obvious loser is Kyle Busch, who since the Chase began has struggled to maintain the dominance he exerted all year. With it he is in 12th place; without it he is 3rd. As I heard someone say today his story is perhaps the best, and worst of the year. Clint Bowyer comes out as the biggest winner of the Chase, rising from 11th to 7th.
Overall everyone is within a few positions (or in the exact same position) of where they would have been without the Chase. With the exception of Kyle Busch, the old saying “the cream always rises to the top” holds true.
As the season winds to a close, it appears as if Jimmie Johnson will easily win the Championship, and probably would have done so with or without the Chase. In this current system (and I would argue, the old one) consistency is king and Johnson has done just that.
So now it’s your turn to sound off. What do you think about this numbers? Does it change your feelings about the Chase? Let us know!
*At the conclusion of the season I will update these standings with Part 2 of the post.*
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on Oct 27th, 2008 at 6:45 am
I am not a fan of the chase as it stands. Nascar created the chase but used the same points structure. For me to become a fan of the chase I’d like to see the chase drivers earn a maximum of 12 points a race. The highest chase driver gets 12 points, the lowest gets 1 point. This would make the last lap at homestead a huge deal.
This would make the chase far more interesting. I really hate the fact that after a couple superstars failed to make the chase Nascar chose to make it 12 drivers instead of 10. Ten drivers should be the cutoff, except for maybe 11th place as a “wildcard”.
Alot of fans out there like myself who have been watching Nascar for years are just about at the end of their rope. Brian France keeps changing the sport we love on a whim. I know he intends to bring in new fans but it seems he has forgotten or does not care about those of us who have been fans since long before he was in charge.
on Oct 27th, 2008 at 7:51 am
As you said, the cream rises to the top! Johnson’s team is head & shoulders above anyone else, and they showed it once again at Atlanta. The reason I don’t care for the chase is TV. Those people show nothing but the chase drivers, and with their stupid updates on standings during the races, they don’t have time for anything else. Maybe they don’t realize that Johnson will be the champion, and the chase is all but over. I could go on & on, but suffice to say, I would not have been watching the last 4 or 5 races if it had’nt been for Andy and Jarrett trying to cover someone other than chase drivers.
on Oct 27th, 2008 at 9:20 am
I love the chase concept, but that does not mean I love the chase in it’s current form. I agree with Bobby on the expanding if it to 12 drivers from 10. 10 are enough. I also agree with him to a degree on the points paid out to the chasers. Using a 12 point system will not work. I would like to see a points system that separated the chasers from the rest of the field but still gives bonus points for such things as winning, leading laps/most laps and QUALING well. But all and all the chase is great for the sport. Every year of the chase we have had a fight down to the wire. Before the chase more times than not the championship was decided before the end of the season. And that meant the races after the championship had been decided were not as important. Now every lap of every race counts. And it is racing isn’t it! All the laps of all the races should count shouldn’t they?
on Oct 27th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Rethinking this whole Chase thing may be in order. American stick-n-ball sports (aside from the college football BCS) have a clear cut winner & loser and only the winner advances. In Cup you have a single winner and 42 losers (man that’s a lot of losers!).
Ok, so break the Chase down into two (5) races segments. Start all (12) w/ “0″ points where (6) of the (12) are eliminated after the (5) race 1st segment. Start the 2nd segment w/ the remaining (6) teams at “0″ points each. The Chase will tighten and everyone is happy when the Champion gets the BIG check in NYC and a new Honda or Nissan for the street.
on Oct 27th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
My ideas for the chase lean to the opposite position of the above posters. In my opinion, the excitement level of the chase needs to be elevated. Cut the chase in half. That’s right, five chase races. Don’t drag it out like MLB’s postseaston. Make it five races, short and sweet. And to further add to the excitement, reset the points of the top twenty! Five races, twenty drivers, mayhem galore. No coast and collect driving here, boys. All you got, every lap.
on Oct 28th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
The chase did what Nascar desired the first 4 years, it made the point battle closer and down to the last race. (Of those 4 years 2 would have won the old way and 2 would not have.)
This year is different, the points would actually be closer under the old format. Yes Johnson would still be out front, but by less than 100 points at this juncture.
on Oct 28th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
When you think about it, the Cup season breaks down the same way a typical Cup race pans out. We start with the Super Bowl first (Daytona), just like the start of the race its pretty exciting. By mid season we’re points racing, just trying to get track position and stay on the lead lap. Into the Chase, Nascar throws the proverbial debris caution (the Chase itself) to keep things close. Be it points or in the race. Then comes Johnson and Knaus and now NASCAR needs another strategy insure a green-white-checker. What next? Inverted starts?
One thing NASCAR “has” to do is improve the quality and excitement of qualifying. I love racing, but with the exception of Infineon or Watkins Glen, will not be caught dead watching single car snoozefest on Friday’s.
on Nov 11th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
NASCAR, the only interesting race they have is at a place called Watkins Glen. Starting, stopping, turn left then turn right is racing. Now…making NASCAR interesting…I think there should be more races turned into the format used for the allstars race at Charlotte. Get this idead…Take and give points for the Daytona Qualifiers only give them super bonus (double) points for the top 12 finishers. Then do INDY the same way…have qualifying races with super bonus points for the Top 12. Then do the same for the ALLSTAR race in Charlotte. Then let the rest of the season run as scheduled until Homestead and do the same race format as the other super bonus point playing tracks. Then the pressure to perform ALL year will bear out the best. Using this format you would probably find that the Best at the first of the year would be racing against the best in the middle of the year against the best at the end of the year. K.Busch vs Carl Edwards vs Jimmy Johnson. 3 way shoot out at homestead. Besides with the present Chase format if you got really hot and won 6 races during the chase and had top 5’s all the rest of the races you could not win the championship because the current format locks anyone who might be able to do it out!